Presidential Election Update

13 06 2012

I’ve spent plenty of times looking at polls and trying to figure out how the presidential election will turn out this year. Below is the map I created thanks to Real Clear Politics.

I have made some changes to the RCP predictions just based on current polls and history. I took most of the likely states and made them safe. There a few states that are starting to lean in one direction but could ultimately change depending on the VP nominee, and there are some states that the lead for Obama is starting to decrease.

I took North Carolina, Arizona and Missouri out of the toss-up category and moved them into the leans Romney category based on recent polling that suggests that Romney is picking up more support in those states than Obama is.

I think that Florida will end up going for Romney, but I did not change it on the map because it is still too close to decide for sure. A VP nominee could ensure Florida would go red, but at this point is still too close.

As of right now, New Hampshire will go blue, but if Romney takes Kelly Ayotte as his VP, it could sway the state into red category. This is the only reason that I left it as a toss up.

Michigan will probably end up going blue as well, but the most recent poll from there shows Romney up one.

Right now, I believe that Nevada will probably go blue, but we all know that Nevada is always up in the air. Also, I have Pennsylvania in the leaning Obama instead of likely because Romney has been pouring money into the state and has reduced Obama’s lead in the state.

Right now, the biggest few states are Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. These are going to be hard fought battles that can decide this whole election. Virginia will be were a lot of money is spent trying to persuade swing voters. Most of the polls are within the margin of error, but Obama is still losing a little steam in the state. Ohio is in a similar situation, but starting to lean a little more Romney than Virginia is. Nearly all of the polls from Colorado show a one point lead for Obama, so it is still too close to call there. Wisconsin is slowly drifting towards Romney after Walker’s big win in the recall election. Also, a Romney/Ryan ticket could sway Wisconsin.

I think that this election will ultimately come down to one state: Virginia. Expect major campaigning to go on their, and if Romney plays his cards right with the VP nominee that will appeal to the voters of Virginia, he might just become the next president.

Tell me what you think below!

All of my information came from realclearpolitics.com

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